Harry Mahaffey, Farzad Taheripour, Wallace E. Tyner. Evaluating the Economic and Environmental Impacts of a Global GMO Ban. Journal of Environmental Protection, 2016; 07 (11): 1522 DOI: 10.4236/jep.2016.711127
This is done by modeling two counterfactual
scenarios and evaluating them apart and in combination using a well-know
Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, GTAP-BIO. The first scenario models
the impact of a global GMO ban. The second scenario models the impact of increased
GMO penetration. The focus is on the price and welfare impacts, and land
use change greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with GMO technologies.
Much of the prior work on the economic impacts of GMO technology has relied on a
combination of partial equilibrium analysis and econometric techniques. However,
CGE modelling is a way of analyzing economy-wide impacts that take into account
the linkages in the global economy. Here the goal is to contribute to the literature on
the benefits of GMO technology by estimating the impacts on price, supply and welfare.
Food price impacts range from an increase of 0.27% to 2.2%, depending on the
region. Total welfare losses associated with loss of GMO technology total up to $9.75
billion. The loss of GMO traits as an intensification technology has not only economic
impacts, but also environmental ones. The full environmental analysis of
GMO is not undertaken here. Rather we model the land use change owing to the loss
of GMO traits and calculate the associated increase in GHG emissions. We predict a
substantial increase in GHG emissions if GMO technology is banned.