The Nordic Council of Ministers.
Johan Karlsson, Elin Röös, Tove Sjunnestrand, Kajsa Pira, Malin Larsson, Bente Hessellund Andersen, Jacob Sørensen, Tapani Veistola, Jaana Rantakokko, Sirkku Manninen og Stein Brubæk
In these scenarios, livestock feed production competes less with human food production and the majority of food is produced within the Nordic countries using organic farming practices. In the first scenario (SY) the number of ruminants was limited to the minimum number needed to graze all semi-natural pastures, while monogastric animals (poultry, pigs and aquaculture fish) were limited to available food processing byproducts. In the second scenario (EY) the number of ruminants was increased to utilize all ley grown in organic crop rotation and byproduct feed for monogastric animals was supplemented with some feed crops grown on arable land. This enabled more food to be produced from Nordic agriculture, thus feeding a larger population. The results show that the scenarios would be able to produce enough nutritious food for 31 (SY) and 37 (EY) million people in the Nordiccountries. The scenarios would thus be able to support the projected population in 2030, albeit with changes in consumption patterns. Consumption of meat decreased by 90 percent (SY) and 81 percent (EY) from current consumption levels; substituted by cereals, legumes and vegetable oil. The scenarios also included more vegetables than currently consumed in order to comply with the Nordic nutrition recommendations. Estimates of current greenhouse gas emissions from the agricultural production of food consumed in the Nordic countries range between 1,310 and 1,940 kg CO2-eq per person per year. The greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural production in the scenarios were estimated at 310–700 kg CO2-eq per diet per year. Workshops held in each of the four participating Nordic countries with stakeholders provided further perspectives on the viability of the scenarios. These discussions highlighted among other things the complexity of consumer choices, the potential for policy action, farmers’ needs and the importance of creating a positive narrative.
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